Of 38 American resort counties priced on one index, 11 lost value over the year to June 2026 and 27 gained. The line between them is not geography and it is not climate. It is price: 12 of these counties rank inside the twenty most expensive in the United States, and not one of them fell. The most expensive resort county that did fall is Kauai, 21th.
How this was measured
Every figure here is the Zillow Home Value Index for the top third of the housing stock, county by county, taken from Zillow’s published research data on 9 August 2026 for June 2026, the most recent month published. Zillow releases the same index split into thirds by value, which is the reason this comparison is possible: the expensive end of a resort county can be read against the expensive end of every other county in the country rather than against a national average that mixes in everything below it. The file carries 3,074 counties.
The annual change is June 2026 against the same month a year earlier, both read from the same file in the same download, so no two figures here come from different vintages of the index. Zillow revises this series, and a change computed from a number saved earlier would be measuring the revision as much as the market.
Every resort county, by where it ranks nationally
Inside the national top twenty, where none fell
| National rank | Place | Top-tier value | 12 months | Months negative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aspen and Snowmass | $10,114,588 | +10.3% | 0 of 12 |
| 2 | Nantucket | $6,277,364 | +7.5% | 4 of 12 |
| 3 | Jackson Hole | $5,812,440 | +1.6% | 4 of 12 |
| 4 | Telluride | $5,147,566 | +6.1% | 0 of 12 |
| 5 | Park City | $3,261,901 | +4.1% | 0 of 12 |
| 6 | Vail and Beaver Creek | $3,259,601 | +3.3% | 0 of 12 |
| 7 | Martha’s Vineyard | $3,132,551 | +4.6% | 4 of 12 |
| 10 | Sun Valley and Ketchum | $2,964,163 | +17.9% | 0 of 12 |
| 14 | Steamboat Springs | $2,388,488 | +3.6% | 0 of 12 |
| 15 | Santa Barbara and Montecito | $2,265,769 | +3.1% | 6 of 12 |
| 18 | The Florida Keys | $2,060,786 | +0.7% | 10 of 12 |
| 20 | Breckenridge and Keystone | $1,884,249 | +0.4% | 7 of 12 |
Outside it, where eleven did
| National rank | Place | Top-tier value | 12 months | Months negative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Kauai | $1,838,874 | -1.0% | 12 of 12 |
| 25 | Maui | $1,723,204 | -5.9% | 12 of 12 |
| 26 | Carmel and Pebble Beach | $1,706,778 | +0.9% | 10 of 12 |
| 27 | Cape May | $1,691,418 | +7.3% | 4 of 12 |
| 29 | Crested Butte | $1,682,443 | +5.1% | 0 of 12 |
| 32 | Napa Valley | $1,609,023 | -2.0% | 12 of 12 |
| 34 | The 30A beaches | $1,599,414 | -0.9% | 12 of 12 |
| 44 | Oahu | $1,407,898 | +1.6% | 6 of 12 |
| 45 | Cape Cod | $1,387,041 | +1.7% | 4 of 12 |
| 51 | Naples | $1,344,111 | -4.0% | 12 of 12 |
| 53 | Charleston | $1,328,084 | +2.0% | 0 of 12 |
| 57 | Big Sky and Bozeman | $1,317,131 | +0.4% | 8 of 12 |
| 64 | The Hamptons and eastern Long Island | $1,247,934 | +3.7% | 0 of 12 |
| 72 | Hilton Head | $1,187,004 | +2.1% | 0 of 12 |
| 76 | Whitefish | $1,163,926 | +1.0% | 8 of 12 |
| 87 | Bend | $1,098,822 | -2.8% | 12 of 12 |
| 88 | The Big Island | $1,098,186 | -0.8% | 12 of 12 |
| 95 | North Lake Tahoe | $1,057,407 | +0.7% | 11 of 12 |
| 99 | Palm Beach | $1,035,841 | +1.4% | 10 of 12 |
| 102 | Santa Fe | $1,024,743 | +0.7% | 8 of 12 |
| 113 | South Lake Tahoe | $1,003,908 | -0.2% | 12 of 12 |
| 127 | Reno and the Nevada shore of Tahoe | $954,365 | +0.8% | 0 of 12 |
| 236 | Sarasota and Siesta Key | $778,026 | -5.3% | 12 of 12 |
| 259 | Door County | $759,109 | +1.0% | 6 of 12 |
| 360 | Taos | $687,859 | -0.2% | 9 of 12 |
| 373 | Gatlinburg and the Smokies | $674,193 | -5.3% | 12 of 12 |
The persistence check, which is the part that matters
A single month of a small county can invert and look like a trend, so the annual change was computed for each of the last twelve months rather than once. 10 of the 38 counties were negative in every one of those twelve months, and 11 were negative in none of them. That is a cleaner split than the annual figure alone suggests, and it means the counties at the two ends are not close calls that happened to land on either side of zero.
At one end of that split sits Maui, negative in every one of the twelve months and down 5.9 percent over the year. Sarasota and Siesta Key was negative in every month too, down 5.3 percent. At the other end Sun Valley and Ketchum was negative in none of the twelve while rising 17.9 percent. Aspen and Snowmass was also negative in none, rising 10.3 percent. The final column of the table above carries the count for every county surveyed.
Hawaii is the clearest case: 3 of 4 counties falling
All four Hawaiian counties are in this survey and 3 of them lost value at the top tier, each of them in every one of the twelve months tested. Maui County is the steepest fall in the entire survey at -5.9 percent, from $1,831,921 to $1,723,204. Honolulu County is the exception at +1.6 percent, and it is also the one Hawaiian county that is a working city rather than a place people mostly visit.
What the correlation is worth, stated honestly
Rank against annual change across these 38 counties gives a correlation of -0.441. That is real but moderate, and this publication has published -0.895 as a finding, described -0.503 as moderate and refused to draw a conclusion from -0.276. This one sits between the second and the third of those, so it is reported and it is not the argument. The argument is the count, which is categorical rather than statistical: zero of the top twenty fell and 11 of the remaining 26 did.
What this does not show
Zillow’s Home Value Index is weaker evidence than the auction results and the land-registry figures elsewhere on this site, and the difference matters. It estimates what homes are worth and then smooths and seasonally adjusts that estimate; it is not a register of completed sales. Nobody paid any of the 3,074 county values read here on 9 August 2026. A county is also not a town. Pitkin County covers Aspen and Snowmass and the land between them, its top-tier figure of $10,114,588 describes the most expensive third of everything inside that boundary, and a third of a county’s housing stock is not a luxury threshold anyone has defined.
It does not show why, and the tempting explanations are not testable from this file. The cost of insuring a coastal house is one candidate. The aftermath of the 2023 wildfire on Maui is another. Neither appears in a home-value index, and neither does the cost of borrowing or the rate of new building. The finding here is a shape in the data with a date on it, and a reader who wants a cause will have to look somewhere this desk has not been.
This piece is part of our property reference, What an American House Costs: Zillow’s Own Index, by Metro, County and Tier, which sets out the method and collects every figure we have published on the subject. Also in it: Nine of the Ten Most Expensive Counties in America Are Resort Towns. Manhattan Is Ninth., The Top Third of US Housing Lagged the Bottom in 65% of Metros. In the Biggest 25, It Led., New York City Has Nine Property Transfer Tax Thresholds. Crossing the $10 Million One Costs $100,000., The Same $10 Million House Costs $532,500 to Transfer in New York and $70,000 in Florida..
Sources
All values are the Zillow Home Value Index, single-family homes and condos, top third of the housing stock by value, smoothed and seasonally adjusted. The file was downloaded from Zillow’s public research data on 9 August 2026 and carries 3,074 counties. Current and year-earlier values come from the same download, and the twelve monthly annual changes behind the persistence column were computed from twenty-five consecutive months of that same file.
The ranking, the counts, the correlation and every percentage above are our own arithmetic. The selection of 38 resort counties was made before any price was read and no county was added or removed afterwards, which matters here more than usual: a survey of falling markets assembled after seeing which ones fell would prove nothing at all.
Frequently asked questions
Are resort town home prices falling in 2026?
Some are. 11 of 38 American resort counties lost top-tier value over the year to June 2026 and 27 gained, on Zillow’s index read on 9 August 2026. Every falling county ranks outside the twenty most expensive in the country; the most expensive one that fell is Kauai, at -1.0 percent.
Is the Aspen real estate market cooling?
Not on this measure. Pitkin County’s top tier rose +10.3 percent over the year to June 2026 and was negative in none of the twelve months tested. It is also the most expensive county in the United States on this index, at $10,114,588.
Why are Hawaii home prices falling?
This index does not answer why. What it shows is that 3 of the four Hawaiian counties lost top-tier value over the year, each in all twelve months tested, with Maui County the steepest in this survey at -5.9 percent. Honolulu County rose +1.6 percent.
Does an expensive market fall less often?
In this survey it did, though the relationship is moderate rather than strong. The correlation between national rank and annual change across 38 counties is -0.441. The firmer statement is the count: none of the 12 counties inside the national top twenty fell, and 11 of the 26 below it did.