Measured across every US metropolitan area with a full year of data, the top third of the housing stock grew more slowly than the bottom third in 576 of 891 of them, or 64.6 percent. That reads as a clear statement that American luxury housing is losing to the rest of the market. Restricted to the 25 largest metros, the same measurement inverts: the top tier lags in only 20 percent of them and leads by a median of +0.52 points.
How this was measured, and what the index is
The data is the Zillow Home Value Index, published free as monthly CSV files by Zillow Research and read on 5 August 2026. Zillow splits each metro into thirds by property value and publishes a separate series for each third, which is the reason this comparison is possible at all: the top of a market is measured against the bottom of the same market rather than against a national average. HM Land Registry, the source this desk uses for UK property, publishes no equivalent tier split.
The window is the twelve months from 2025-06-30 to 2026-06-30, and the figure for each metro is the change in its own index over that period. Spread is the top tier’s change minus the bottom tier’s, in percentage points, so a positive spread means expensive homes in that metro outgrew cheap ones. Metros are ranked by Zillow’s own size rank. One caution belongs at the top rather than in a footnote: ZHVI is a smoothed, seasonally adjusted index of estimated values, not a register of completed sales. It is weaker evidence than the UK Land Registry index and weaker than a realized auction price, and it should be read as a direction rather than as a transaction record.
The answer depends entirely on how many metros you count
| Sample | Metros where top tier lags | Share | Median spread | Median top tier | Median bottom tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Largest 25 | 5 | 20.0% | +0.52pp | -0.23% | -0.93% |
| Largest 50 | 13 | 26.0% | +0.29pp | +1.07% | +0.11% |
| Largest 100 | 48 | 48.0% | +0.04pp | +1.08% | +1.30% |
| Largest 250 | 152 | 60.8% | -0.59pp | +1.36% | +1.94% |
| All 891 | 576 | 64.6% | -1.02pp | +2.02% | +2.90% |
The crossover sits at roughly the hundredth metro. Among the largest 100 the top tier lags in 48.0 percent of cases and the median spread is +0.04 points, which is as close to no effect as this measurement gets. Above that line luxury leads, below it luxury trails, and the national figure is a count of small places rather than a statement about expensive housing.
The twenty largest metros, individually
| Metro | Top tier value | Top tier change | Bottom tier change | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York, NY | $1,238,487 | +4.65% | +4.42% | +0.23pp |
| Los Angeles, CA | $1,674,546 | +1.23% | +0.44% | +0.79pp |
| Chicago, IL | $598,346 | +5.13% | +4.61% | +0.52pp |
| Dallas, TX | $622,043 | -2.78% | -2.79% | +0.01pp |
| Houston, TX | $529,024 | -1.26% | -2.10% | +0.84pp |
| Washington, DC | $981,638 | -0.23% | -0.51% | +0.28pp |
| Philadelphia, PA | $657,659 | +2.92% | +2.01% | +0.91pp |
| Miami, FL | $915,356 | -0.26% | -4.96% | +4.70pp |
| Atlanta, GA | $639,195 | -1.10% | -2.41% | +1.31pp |
| Boston, MA | $1,204,966 | +1.62% | +2.00% | -0.37pp |
| Phoenix, AZ | $732,702 | +0.02% | -2.30% | +2.33pp |
| San Francisco, CA | $1,989,983 | +1.61% | -2.49% | +4.10pp |
| Riverside, CA | $819,517 | -0.81% | -0.25% | -0.56pp |
| Detroit, MI | $475,857 | +2.77% | +1.42% | +1.35pp |
| Seattle, WA | $1,261,905 | -3.05% | -1.01% | -2.04pp |
| Minneapolis, MN | $598,546 | +1.77% | +1.63% | +0.14pp |
| San Diego, CA | $1,579,019 | -0.77% | -0.93% | +0.17pp |
| Tampa, FL | $590,702 | -2.69% | -3.84% | +1.15pp |
| Denver, CO | $865,480 | -2.19% | -3.75% | +1.57pp |
| Baltimore, MD | $681,738 | +0.95% | +0.00% | +0.95pp |
Miami, FL has the widest gap, at +4.70 points
In Miami, FL the top third of the market moved -0.26 percent while the bottom third moved -4.96 percent, a spread of +4.70 points and the widest of the twenty largest metros. The top tier index in Miami, FL stands at $915,356. A gap that size inside one metro is the case against reading any single citywide house price number: the same city produced two materially different answers depending on which third of its housing stock you looked at.
Seattle, WA runs the other way
Seattle, WA is the clearest exception among the largest twenty, with the top tier at -3.05 percent against -1.01 percent for the bottom, a spread of -2.04 points. Its top tier index stands at $1,261,905. Five of the largest 25 metros show a negative spread, so the pattern in big cities is a tendency rather than a rule, and this piece states the count rather than describing it as broad.
This is the opposite of what the UK is doing
The contrast is worth stating because both measurements are ours and both were taken in the same season. Across twelve UK regions, using HM Land Registry’s UK House Price Index for the year to May 2026, this desk measured a correlation of -0.895 between how expensive a region is and how fast it is growing: in Britain the cheapest regions rose fastest and London was the only one falling. In the 25 largest US metros, using the Zillow Home Value Index for the year to 2026-06-30, the relationship points the other way, with the top tier outgrowing the bottom by a median +0.52 points and lagging in only 20 percent of them. Two developed housing markets, measured within weeks of each other on each country’s most widely used index, moving in opposite directions at the top.
What this does not show
It does not show what anything sold for. ZHVI is an estimate of value across a whole tier, so it cannot say what a particular house fetched, and it is not comparable to the realized auction prices this publication uses for cars. It also says nothing about cost of ownership: property taxes, insurance and maintenance are the recurring costs of holding a US home and none of them is in this index. Insurance in particular has moved sharply in several of the states represented above, and that is a separate piece requiring its own primary sources rather than an inference from this one.
This piece is part of our property reference, What an American House Costs: Zillow’s Own Index, by Metro, County and Tier, which sets out the method and collects every figure we have published on the subject. Also in it: Nine of the Ten Most Expensive Counties in America Are Resort Towns. Manhattan Is Ninth., No US Resort County in the National Top 20 Lost Value. Eleven Below It Did., New York City Has Nine Property Transfer Tax Thresholds. Crossing the $10 Million One Costs $100,000., The Same $10 Million House Costs $532,500 to Transfer in New York and $70,000 in Florida..
Sources
All figures are the Zillow Home Value Index for single-family homes and condominiums, smoothed and seasonally adjusted, published as free monthly CSV files by Zillow Research and read on 5 August 2026. Three separate files were used, one for each value tier: the bottom third, the middle third and the top third of each metro by property value. The window is 2025-06-30 to 2026-06-30, and only metros carrying a complete series across that window in both the top and bottom tiers were included, which is 891 of them.
Every percentage, spread, median and count on this page is our own arithmetic on those files. Zillow publishes the index; it does not publish this comparison. The size ranking is Zillow’s own. ZHVI is a modelled index rather than a record of transactions, which places it below the UK Land Registry index and below realized auction prices on this publication’s evidence hierarchy, and the article says so in the method rather than in a footnote.
Frequently asked questions
Are luxury homes in the US losing value?
Not in the largest markets. Across all 891 metros with a full year of data the top third of the housing stock grew more slowly than the bottom third in 64.6 percent of cases, but among the 25 largest metros that falls to 20 percent and the top tier leads by a median +0.52 points. Measured on the Zillow Home Value Index from 2025-06-30 to 2026-06-30, read on 5 August 2026.
Which US city has the biggest gap between expensive and cheap homes?
Of the twenty largest metros, Miami, FL: its top tier moved -0.26 percent against -4.96 percent for its bottom tier over the year to 2026-06-30, a spread of +4.70 percentage points, with the top tier index at $915,356.
Is US luxury property behaving like the UK?
No, and the two point opposite ways. This desk measured a correlation of -0.895 across twelve UK regions between price level and growth rate, meaning the most expensive part of Britain was the only one falling. In the 25 largest US metros the top tier instead leads the bottom by a median +0.52 points over the year to 2026-06-30. Both figures are our own arithmetic, on HM Land Registry data for the UK and Zillow Research data for the US.