The cheapest places to buy a house in the United Kingdom are rising fastest, and the most expensive is the only one falling. In the year to May 2026 Northern Ireland rose 7.4 percent and the North East 5.9 percent, while London fell 3.7 percent. Across the twelve UK regions the rank correlation between average price and annual growth was -0.895: close to a perfect inversion.
This is HM Land Registry’s own index, built from registered completions rather than asking prices. The market has not slowed evenly. It has turned upside down.
Every UK region, ranked by annual change
Average price and annual percentage change, HM Land Registry UK House Price Index, May 2026, read on 5 August 2026. England is shown for comparison and excluded from the correlation, since it is a composite of the English regions above it.
| Region | Average price | Annual | Flats | Detached |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Ireland | £198,015 | +7.4% | +1.2% | +6.7% |
| North East | £163,933 | +5.9% | +2.7% | +5.0% |
| North West | £219,506 | +5.8% | +2.3% | +5.5% |
| Scotland | £195,543 | +4.4% | +1.3% | +6.9% |
| Yorkshire and The Humber | £208,549 | +4.3% | +0.9% | +3.8% |
| Wales | £215,252 | +4.2% | +1.0% | +3.1% |
| East Midlands | £240,758 | +3.2% | -0.2% | +2.9% |
| East of England | £338,224 | +2.3% | +0.6% | +1.9% |
| England (all) | £292,095 | +2.3% | -2.2% | +2.5% |
| West Midlands | £233,957 | +2.2% | -1.4% | +2.3% |
| South West | £302,559 | +1.7% | -0.6% | +1.5% |
| South East | £381,311 | +1.2% | -1.2% | +1.3% |
| London | £544,814 | -3.7% | -6.6% | -2.3% |
Read the first two columns together and the pattern is almost mechanical. The four fastest-rising areas, Northern Ireland, the North East, the North West and Scotland , are four of the five cheapest. The three slowest, London, the South East and the South West, are three of the four most expensive.
The inversion is strong enough to state plainly
A rank correlation of -0.895 across twelve UK regions is not a suggestive pattern, it is close to a straight line. It says that in the year to May 2026 you could have predicted a region’s house price growth almost entirely from how expensive it already was, in the wrong direction.
We are stating this firmly because we have declined to state weaker things. In our analysis of classic car auction results the correlation between price and liquidity came out at -0.276 and we refused to build a claim on it. The difference between -0.276 and -0.895 is the difference between a hunch and a finding.
Two limits still apply. Twelve regions is a small sample by construction, since the United Kingdom only has twelve. And a correlation across one month is a snapshot, not a trend, though London’s decline specifically has now run for most of a year, which we set out in our twelve-month series on prime central London.
London is not merely slow, it is the only faller
London’s average of £544,814 is 3.3 times the North East’s £163,933, and it is the sole UK region in negative territory at -3.7 percent. The South East, second most expensive at £381,311, still managed +1.2 percent.
So this is not a general story about expensive housing running out of buyers. It is a London story with a national backdrop, and the fall is concentrated further still: within London, prime central boroughs are down far more than the city average, with Kensington and Chelsea at -10.7 percent and the City of Westminster at -22.8 percent over the same period.
Flats are the fault line, everywhere
Flats and maisonettes were the only English property type to fall in the year to May 2026, at -2.2 percent against +2.5 percent for detached homes. That split repeats across the country: flats fell in six of the twelve UK regions while detached homes fell in only one, London.
The gap is widest exactly where flats dominate the stock. In London flats fell 6.6 percent against 2.3 percent for detached homes. In the North East, where flats are a smaller share of the market, they rose 2.7 percent. Leasehold structures, service charges and building-safety costs all sit disproportionately on flats, and the index is showing the market pricing that in.
What this index does and does not measure
- It lags about two months. UKHPI is built from registered completions, so May 2026 reflects sales agreed earlier in the year.
- It is mix-adjusted, not repeat-sales. A change in what sells can move a regional average independently of what any individual home is worth.
- It measures prices, not volumes. A region can print rising prices on very few transactions.
- Regions are large and internally varied. The North West contains both Cheshire and Blackpool. A regional figure is not a local one.
Frequently asked questions
Where are UK house prices rising fastest?
Northern Ireland, at 7.4 percent in the year to May 2026, then the North East at 5.9 percent and the North West at 5.8 percent.
Which UK region is falling?
London alone, at -3.7 percent, and it is also the most expensive region at an average of £544,814.
Is the UK housing market inverted?
On this measure, close to it. Across the twelve UK regions in May 2026 the rank correlation between average price and annual change was -0.895.
This piece is part of our property reference, What a British House Costs to Hold: Official Prices, by Region and by Borough, which sets out the method and collects every figure we have published on the subject. Also in it: England’s House Prices Rose 2.3 Percent. Kensington and Chelsea Fell 10.7. Westminster Fell 22.8., Every London Borough, Ranked: 20 of 33 Fell, and the Worst Is Not the Most Expensive, Flats Are the Weakest Property Type in All 13 UK Regions. In England They Fell 2.2 Percent While Detached Rose 2.5., The Top Third of US Housing Lagged the Bottom in 65% of Metros. In the Biggest 25, It Led., Stamp Duty on a 10 Million Pound House Runs From 1.11m to 1.81m. The House Is the Same..
Sources for these UK house price figures
Every average price and annual change above is HM Land Registry UK House Price Index data for May 2026, read from the index on 5 August 2026. UKHPI is the United Kingdom’s official house price statistic, compiled by HM Land Registry from completions registered with it rather than from asking prices or agreed sales, which is why it lags roughly two months and why it cannot be talked up by anyone with a house to sell.
The ranking of the twelve regions, the -0.895 rank correlation between average price and annual change, and every comparison drawn between regions are our own arithmetic on the published index rather than figures HM Land Registry states. England is excluded from that correlation because it is a composite of the English regions and would double-count them.